Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has announced that his country will deploy a joint military force with Russia near the border with Ukraine in response to rising tensions.
Ukrainian officials say Belarus is being pushed by Russia to open a new front in the war in Ukraine, which could force Kiev to divert resources and attention away from its counter-offensives in the east and south of the country, according to analysis in the Financial Times.
Addressing leaders at the G7 summit via video conference on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy said;
“Russia is trying to drag Belarus into this war. There is a provocation that we are going to attack this country. They have already drawn it in indirectly. Now they want to draw it in directly. Ukraine has not planned a military strike against Belarus.”
Zelensky said a delegation of international observers could be deployed to the thousand-kilometer border between Ukraine and Belarus to refute Russia’s claims.
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Russia used Belarus as a ‘springboard’ for the invasion that began on February 24. It sent thousands of troops across the border in the assault on Kiev and fired missiles at Ukrainian targets from air bases in Belarus.
According to Ukrainian military intelligence, Russia has deployed Iranian-made Shahed-136 armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UCAVs) to Belarusian air bases in recent days.
Minsk supplies Russian forces with arms and ammunition, but has so far not sent any of its 60,000 mostly conscripted troops into battle ‘at least under the Belarusian flag’.
Analysts and opposition leaders say Lukashenko has resisted direct involvement in the conflict, fearing a popular and even military backlash that could jeopardize his grip on power.
Lukashenko has ruled the country since 1994 and enlisted Moscow’s help to quell mass protests that erupted in 2020 over allegedly rigged presidential elections.
Franak Viacorka, advisor to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, said;
“If such an order (to fight) comes from Lukashenko, people will change sides and run away. What they can do is to recruit some people into paramilitary groups like Wagner, not into a regular army. I don’t believe that Belarusians will go to Ukraine to fight on the Russian side.”
Viacorka said the joint deployment of Belarusian and Russian troops on the border is aimed at legalizing Russia’s presence in Belarus, putting pressure on Ukraine, distracting its forces and creating tension on the border.
The decision to deploy Russian forces on the border with Belarus could be a sign of new Russian military formations following Moscow’s partial mobilization order last month.
Unconfirmed reports this week suggested that Russian forces had begun arriving at bases in Belarus.
Mykhailo Samus, Director of the Kiev-based New Geopolitical Research Network, commented;
“With the threat of a new offensive from the north of Ukraine, Moscow could neutralize ‘several brigades’ of Ukrainian forces – about 30,000 troops – participating in the counter-offensive against it in the east and south of the country. It will try to open a new front, which will be a challenge for Ukraine.”
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggested that while Russia could use its military bases in Belarus to house and train thousands of newly mobilized troops, it would not quickly turn them into a ground assault force.
Analysts emphasized that it is highly unlikely that these are leading indicators that ‘Belarus will intervene on Russia’s behalf in Ukraine anytime soon’.
The Kremlin may seek to use additional Russian forces in Belarus to stabilize Ukrainian forces near Kiev and prevent their redeployment elsewhere to participate in counterattacks.
ISW has previously assessed that Lukashenko cannot afford the domestic repercussions of Belarusian involvement in Ukraine.
According to ISW, Ukrainian military intelligence has pointed out that reports that Belarus has sent 492 tons of weapons and military equipment by rail to Russian forces in Crimea and is preparing several other trainloads do not necessarily indicate that Moscow is building a new strike force in Belarus.
Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting, a military advisory service based in Poland, commented;
“If troops are deployed, we will need to see where they will be sent and what capabilities they will demonstrate. Only then will we be able to assess whether Ukraine is under threat from the Belarusian side.”
Muzyka said that Belarus is not currently concentrating its forces and that its stance still appears to be defensive, but that the threatening rhetoric coming from Minsk could be preparation for a ‘false flag operation’ to provide a pretext for Belarus’ participation.
Former US Ambassador to Minsk Daniel Speckhard said it was illogical for Russia’s depleted military to open a new front in Belarus.
“But Moscow has not always thought rationally about its war with the West,” Speckhard added.
