Viewers of the popular 60 Minutes television magazine might have found it surprising to encounter a feature on the state of quantum computing in December. Quantum computing is typically considered an intricate and niche subject, not commonly covered for mainstream audiences. However, with the increasing hype and adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), it seems to signal the emergence of an even more advanced and potentially life-changing technology.
Beyond the recent surge in media attention around quantum computing, driven in part by notable experiments from key players, both large and small, a crucial development is on the horizon. The U.S. Congress is set to re-authorize the bipartisan-supported National Quantum Initiative, allocating over $3 billion for quantum research in the next five years, if passed as expected.
A sense of urgency has also arisen to see tangible results sooner. Alan McQuinn, a staff member on the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, emphasized the initiative’s focus on investing in near-term quantum science applications, moving towards showcasing the technology’s practical need across economic sectors.
Similar initiatives by the UK, Canadian, and EU government entities are gaining momentum, aiming for more short-term progress, partly fueled by advancements and investments in China. Staying ahead in the field of quantum computing may indeed prove to be a more strategic priority than the ongoing AI competition.
From hype to reality, quantum computing enthusiasts have faced criticism for overhyping the technology’s near-term impacts. While its potential to address challenges in various fields drove anticipation, expectations were set unrealistically high. In 2019, Google claimed “quantum supremacy,” but practical utility lagged behind. However, by 2022, the irrational exuberance had cooled, leading to a more realistic assessment of the challenges involved in building a useful quantum computer.
2024 is expected to mark a period of steady progress and tangible goals, moving away from the boom-and-bust mentality of previous years.
The primary challenge to advancing quantum computing can be summarized in one word: errors. Quantum computers consist of quantum algorithms, a quantum error correction stack, and quantum bits (qubits). Errors in qubits quickly overwhelm calculations. Developing quantum algorithms and employing quantum error correction techniques can reduce errors, unlocking world-changing applications.
The progress in quantum error correction dominated in 2023, with significant papers and announcements. Investments, predominantly led by governments, arrived at the end of 2023, employing a ‘testbed’ business model to break down the challenge into manageable components.
The UK’s ambitious plan to create a ‘TeraQuop’ quantum computer capable of a trillion error-free operations by 2035 stands out. As the industry connects short-term testbeds with long-term goals, optimism is higher than ever.
2024 is poised to witness a shift from short-term testbeds to middle-term, ambitious goals, bridging the gap between quantum computing’s potential and practical applications. While the specific applications remain unknown, the development of better quantum algorithms and error correction techniques is crucial.
As progress accelerates, 2024 will be a pivotal year in the quantum computing conversation, focusing on tangible goals, realistic ambitions, and unlocking real results. Ultimately, fixing errors is the key to unlocking the full potential of quantum computing.
