Is there any connection between the strikes on the US base in Tanf, which is located at the corner of the Syria-Jordan-Iraq border, and the missiles sent by Iran to Iraq-Syria-Pakistan and, going further, the terrorist attacks against Turkey?
At first glance, it may seem difficult to establish a clear connection. These developments correspond to different layers, or rather different ‘floors’, but we are talking about the same apartment building, the same address…
Likewise, there is a qualitative as well as a formal link between Iran’s first appearance without subcontractors in the triple missile strikes and the first killing of US soldiers…
One is local, the other is regional, but all are clearly central parts of the Middle East power struggle…
For example, just as the Tanf incident coincides with the timing of the US Presidential elections, the terrorist attacks and missiles coincide with the upcoming elections in northern Iraq – if they take place…
Or, in the conjuncture of the repercussions of the Israel-Gaza tragedy on the region, just as one of the outcomes of the Tanf attack was the expectation that the US would strike Iran, Turkey’s beating Iran and the US over PKK/YPG/Bafel Talabani is similar…
We need to know the floors, the apartments, even the rooms. But without confusing the addresses. (The introduction was in; ‘The facts of the Iranian triple attack’, 20/01.)
We now know what the PUK, i.e. Bafel Talabani, is; it cooperates with the PKK/YPG, Iran and the US. There is no contradiction. This is exactly what is happening and in the Middle East
just such a place…
Another development that seems like a contradiction is the intense discussions about the US withdrawal from Iraq and even Syria. It is necessary to ponder what this means, whether it is real or not. The American official narrative denies it. But everyone is talking about it!
So is the rivalry between Iran and Turkey. This line of tension, especially over Iraq, is another reality. It is unthinkable that this issue was not discussed during the Iranian President’s recent visit to Ankara. What Mr. President said in the closed session and how Reisi received it is a matter of curiosity. The repercussions on the ground will give clues…
The discomfort caused by the rapprochement between Turkey and Iraq is palpable. It is natural that the recent visit of the Baghdad delegation to Turkey and the agreements reached, the visits of the Foreign Minister and the head of the National Intelligence Organization (MIT) to the region, and projects such as the Development Road Corridor should raise eyebrows. They are all signs that the same competition for influence, the rivalry over parts of Iraq, will grow. It should be enough for Foreign Minister Mr. Fidan to talk about ‘further measures against the PUK’.
We look at the apartment building through the neighborhood, not the street…
The attack on the Tanf base actually hit the ‘secret’ CIA station on the border, which is an extension of this base. The fact that Iran and/or its ‘proxies’ carried out this attack is in line with the background we have been observing throughout the region. In other words, “Iran and its proxies have carried out many attacks on US bases, but no American soldiers were killed, now they have done that too, and before that, for the first time, they came out in person and fired missiles at three countries”! If this reading is correct, it is necessary to make sense of it. (Not now, but it is necessary to study the claim that the US will withdraw not only from Syria but also from the whole of West Asia, including Iraq).
It is necessary to understand the panic of Jordan, which hastily declared after the attack that “the base is not within our borders, the attack did not take place on our territory”. With the attack on ‘Tower 22’ in the Levant, hasn’t it been revealed how a country on the border of the Israel-Gaza war is cooperating with the US? Is it wrong to say that ‘this is exactly the kind of place’?
The region is entering a new phase. This will also challenge Washington. On the one hand, Washington has to make a decision in Iraq and Syria, but on the other hand, it has to choose between “war and peace” and bear the consequences of its choice.
In the US, the ‘war-making’ method has been used frequently during election periods as one of the political tricks to ‘remind’ the public of the President’s heroism and courage. But there is no one to buy it for a President who does not remember who is president and whose popular support is in shambles…
On the contrary, it is difficult for the public, which has already started to complain about the Ukraine war, is angry about Israel and tired of internal divisions (25 states against Biden), to support Biden because he hit Iran.
On the other hand, in the succession of statements heard from Washington in the run-up to the elections, Biden is being targeted with harsh rhetoric calling for retribution against Iran. But the government does not want to go to war with Iran. The medicine they are looking for is a finely tuned show where Biden can say “see, we did what was necessary” and Iran can say “that’s all they can do”! Because there is a price for not doing anything.
It does not end there. The US is not only/mainly dealing with Iran or the Houthis in Yemen. The ‘Western Coalition’ is also present in the Red Sea, but it does not produce more than economic damage. Since the operation against the Houthis also disrupted international routes, they asked for China’s support, if not influence. Let’s be clear: the idea of punishing Iran for Yemen was put forward by US National Security Advisor Sullivan to the delegation led by the Chinese Foreign Minister that met in Bangkok on January 26-27…
In appropriate language, of course, they demanded that China use its influence over Iran. Beijing refused. The US understood what China would say if they hit Iran. A senior Indian diplomat commented on Sullivan’s response: “they said nyet”! So Russia is in the same place. I guess it is understood. This new geopolitics is the reason for Iran’s spoiled bravado.
Next, let’s talk about Erdogan-Reisi, the final declaration of the Astana trilateral meeting, and how the ‘post-American Middle East’ was/will be discussed during Putin’s upcoming visit to Turkey. It sounds like a dream, but there is a but…
