France: With Macron losing his majority, what scenarios are being discussed and how can a government be formed?
French President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble alliance failed to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly. While Macron, who was re-elected two months ago, is expected to face difficult days, the Ensemble alliance is working on new scenarios to ‘get rid of paralysis’.
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The number of Ensemble seats in the National Assembly is expected to be between 210 and 260. In order to form a government, the number of 289 deputies must be reached.
In the latest situation, it is stated that it will be difficult for Macron’s economic reform plan to be realized, and it is commented that the French President, who is busy with the domestic agenda, will also weaken in foreign policy.
Which scenarios are being discussed in France after the election?
Coalition agreement
In France, coalition governments were frequently formed during the Third and Fourth Republics before 1958. At that time, ‘unstable’ governments usually lasted only a few months.
This instability was seen as one of the reasons for France’s early defeat against Nazi Germany at the beginning of the Second World War.
The new system established in the post-war Fifth Republic of Charles de Gaulle gave the president wide powers.
Macron needs to pass the 289 threshold to secure an absolute majority. As a first step, he could hold talks with the center-right Republican Party (LR).
A government source told Reuters that Macron quietly approached Senate president Gerard Larcher, a senior member of the LR, last week, paving the way for this scenario.
But senior LR officials said on Sunday they were cold to a formal coalition.
“We will form the majority very quickly,” said Olivier Veran, minister for parliamentary affairs.
Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire urged parties that share Macron’s “clear ideas” to support him.
Agreement on individual laws
If the coalition government fails to form, a minority government may have to seek agreement with the parties on legislation.
Only once before in the Fifth Republic has a president with a minority government had to negotiate legislation with other parties.
Socialist president Francois Mitterrand failed to secure an absolute majority in 1988 and for the next five years sought compromises, sometimes with the center-right and sometimes with the once powerful Communist party. During that period, some bills were passed with very few votes, but came into force.
At this point, LR, the party of former presidents Nicolas Sarkozy and Jacques Chirac, can be expected to work together, especially on economic policy.
Rejecting the possibility of a coalition, senior LR officials said their party would be open to approving legislation on a case-by-case basis.
“If some bills go in the right direction, the LR will vote for them, but there will be no agreement with Emmanuel Macron,” said Cecile Richez, LR vice president.
Macron’s government spokeswoman Olivia Gregoire said the government would reach out to moderate voices from the left and right.
Sources close to Macron also state that the LR could split in two at some point and that some MPs have been persuaded to join the Ensemble.
Both scenarios would jeopardize the seat of Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, a technocrat from the left.
Early elections and Macron’s resignation
In France, if the parties cannot agree on anything, it could lead to “chaos”. It is stated that the minority government, which will have limited administrative powers, will not be able to pass the budget bill at the end of the year.
Macron has the authority to call early parliamentary elections at any time. It is stated that if a stable government cannot be formed and the ‘paralysis period’ continues, he may take this risk by dissolving the parliament.
Jacques Chirac lost his majority in 1997 when he called a snap election he thought he would win.
If Macron loses again in an early election, he cannot call for a new election until a year later. In this case, it is said that Macron’s resignation will be on the agenda.
