Joshua Bull, a mathematician from Oxford University, has predicted possible World Cup results.
He created the Oxford Mathematics 2022 World Cup predictor by honing in on the facts, applying his modeling abilities, and adding a sprinkling of the assumptions that underlie modeling.
Mr Bull, who won the 2020 Fantasy Football tournament from over eight million entries, will also provide predictions of specific games on social media outlets, beginning with England-Iran and including all subsequent knockout games.
His mathematical model forecasts that Brazil will win after defeating Belgium in the final.
NEW: Oxford mathematical model predicts route to the men's @FIFAWorldCup ⚽️🏆
The model – created by @OxUniMaths' @JoshuaABull – forecasts:
🏴 England to lose in the quarter-final
🇦🇷 Argentina vs Brazil in the semi-final
🇧🇷 Brazil to beat Belgium in the final#WorldCup pic.twitter.com/gm0IdIt8K6— University of Oxford (@UniofOxford) November 18, 2022
The Oxford mathematical model predicts the path to the men’s World Cup.
The model was created by Joshua Bull, a researcher in Oxford’s Department of Mathematics. The model simulated the group stages a million times and took the most common results. The algorithm then simulated each qualifying match 100,000 times.
The model was built by analyzing team rating data from http://eloratings.net and focused on every first team international match since 2018.
Here are Oxford’s World Cup predictions at the end of the study:
Group standings
Group A
Netherlands
Equator
Senegal
Qatar
Group B
England
Iran
Wales
USA
Group C
Argentina
Mexico
Poland
Saudi Arabia
Group D
France
Denmark
Australia
Tunisia
Group E
Spain
Germany
Japan
Costa Rica
Group F
Belgium
Croatia
Canada
Morocco
Group G
Brazil
Switzerland
Serbia
Cameroon
Group H
Portugal
Uruguay
South Korea
Ghana
Last 16 matches and teams’ winning probabilities
Netherlands (66.1 percent) – Iran (33.9 percent)
Argentina (61.1 percent) – Denmark (38.9 percent)
Spain (57.7 percent) – Croatia (42.3 percent)
Brazil (65.1 percent) – Uruguay (34.9 percent)
United Kingdom (55.9 percent) – Ecuador (44.1 percent)
France (61.1 percent) – Mexico (38.9 percent)
Belgium (57.7 percent) – Germany (42.3 percent)
Portugal (65.1 percent) – Switzerland (34.9 percent)
Quarterfinal matches and probabilities of teams winning
UK (44.3 percent) – France (55.7 percent)
Belgium (50.9 percent) – Portugal (49.1 percent)
Netherlands (43.5 percent) – Argentina (56.5 percent)
Spain (41.5 percent) – Brazil (58.5 percent)
Semifinal matches and probabilities of teams winning
Argentina (48.4 percent) – Brazil (51.6 percent)
France (48.9 percent) – Belgium (51.1 percent)
Final
Brazil (61.3 percent) – Belgium (38.7 percent)
Champion Brazil
