US recession forecast reaches 100%, Bloomberg reports

3 mins read

According to an economic model developed by two Bloomberg analysts and run based on 13 unnamed financial indicators on Monday, the US economy would unquestionably enter a recession in the coming 12 months. Even worse, according to the model’s results, there is a 73% likelihood that the ostensibly inevitable decline will occur within 11 months and a 25% chance that it would do so within ten.

Compared to the previous run of the model by Bloomberg, which predicted a recession within the year with only 65% certainty, those results were noticeably more dire. It’s undoubtedly more dire than President Joe Biden’s predictions, who has maintained that the US will avoid the recession that many analysts appear to believe is just around the horizon. According to Biden, any recession that does occur will be “extremely modest.”

Not all experts agree that the US is doomed; a poll of 42 economists found that a recession is 60% likely to occur over the following 12 months. Even still, since their previous forecast, their outlook had deteriorated, giving the nation a 50% probability of avoiding the recession.

Another economists’ poll, conducted by the Wall Street Journal on Monday, found a 63% likelihood of recession in the US within the year, pointing to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, which have come steep and fast after years with no activity. More than half of those surveyed suggested the central bank would keep increasing rates beyond what was healthy, eventually destabilizing the economy. 

Inflation continues to hover near its four-decade high, even as the Fed has repeatedly hiked rates in an effort to rein in the soaring cost of living. While Biden has hyped job numbers in the hope of giving voters something positive to credit him for economically, insisting Washington’s finances are “strong as hell” and it’s the rest of the world that has problems, his presidency has left a large hole in the country’s finances. Since entering the White House less than three years ago, Biden has added a whopping $3.37 trillion to the national debt, sending it to a record high of $31 trillion. 

While many in the Republican Party – and even some Democrats – blame Biden for the US’ financial misfortunes, his predecessor Donald Trump added over $7 trillion to the national debt as well, largely due to the unprecedented flood of money-printing that accompanied the Covid-19 pandemic.

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