Russian-NATO tension over Ukraine amid war possibilities
Loud talk, threat of sanctions, more than 100,000 soldiers at the border… Could there be a real war that would break out as Russia invaded Ukraine and NATO reacted decisively to it?
US President Joe Biden and a group of European allies accuse Russian President Vladimir Putin of plotting to invade his nearest neighbor.
History and concern
To understand the situation between Russia and Ukraine, it is necessary to look at least to the recent past, especially when the Soviet Union collapsed and lost control of the western border areas, which had been the cornerstone of its security for hundreds of years. Russia’s borders are narrowing from more than one side, especially to the west in the European borders and to the south in the Caucasus. The West, and especially the American hand, can easily reach the Russian depth.
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As a result, Russia began to see vulnerability in its security on its western borders after losing Ukraine. Putin increased his control over Belarus, which created the geographically easiest and most convenient route for any ground attack from Europe to Russia. It then had to focus its efforts on Ukraine, whose Russian borders are only a few hundred kilometers from Moscow, a strategic-military weakness and an existential challenge for Russia, and a crucial power card for Russia as well.
Putin openly demanded serious long-term guarantees protecting Russia’s security in this region (on its western border), because Russia cannot constantly think about what might happen there tomorrow. That request was before the last meeting, via videoconference, where Biden and Putin warned at the White House of the “serious economic consequences” if Russian forces invaded Ukraine.
Biden is said to have guaranteed his counterpart not to intervene militarily in the event of an invasion, and will be content with a violent economic response. Is Putin convinced of this, or does he want more?
Analysts believe that NATO’s reluctance to respond to Moscow’s demands will not find a response on Ukrainian soil, because Putin is not a reckless adventurer, but calculating his steps well. Therefore, he may be content to continue. He is quick to use force when he is sure that he will not cause great harm to himself.
On the other hand, there are those who believe that Ukraine is preparing militarily to retake Donetsk and Luhansk, and if Ukraine does this, no one will consider it aggressor, because the world recognizes that the two territories belong to this country. This would be a step in contrast to any direct Russian intervention that the international community would consider a military operation on another country’s territory, such as when Russia intervened in Georgia to support South Ossetia in 2008.
There is also the possibility that the Russian forces massed on the Ukrainian border will occupy certain areas without making a full occupation. Proponents of this hypothesis say that the size of the mobilized force does not allow the subjugation of the Ukrainian army as a whole, but will ensure that the Russians occupy the Ukrainian territories.
It is clear that the situation in and after the Russia-Ukraine conflict will not be the same as before. The coming weeks and months will be enough to outline the future of a region. If the fire of war ignites, the flames are bound to spread in all directions.
