Ukraine to the Cold War climate
Political public opinion in the world held their breath; Biden and Putin had a meeting that lasted two hours. It was already known that the focus was on Ukraine, where the war conditions were heating up. Provided that this issue is at the center, both sides discussed a general assessment of the relationship between them on a larger scale and the measures that can be taken. Then came the mutual explanations. In general, it is possible to evaluate these statements as “the mountain gave birth to mice” when considered together with the climbing. We can think that the decisive factor here is the statements from the USA. If the evaluation from the USA had been in the direction of a military response if Russia invaded Ukraine, we would have evaluated that the situation had turned into a dramatic showdown, that a Cold War climate had been entered again, and perhaps we would have begun to brood. But it didn’t. In a statement from the White House, it was stated that if Russia entered Ukraine, the reaction would be severe economic sanctions. Could this deter Russia? If Russia really is determined and determined to go to war with Ukraine, we can guess that this threat will never stop it.
Because we know that the party that feels stuck here is Russia itself. Putin sees the US blockading him through Greece, Bulgaria and Romania. He predicts that if he loses Ukraine, Russia will also fall. It has transformed for Putin into a question of being and not being exactly one. Then there’s nothing he won’t risk, including the possibility of nuclear war. This increases Putin’s determination and intimidates the United States. The United States has taken a step back in the face of this determination of Russia, which it has recently squeezed through Eastern Europe and the Black Sea. To sum up, the winner of this meeting is by far Putin. We can claim this by looking at the results. The credibility of the USA in the eyes of the world states continues to erode in Ukraine after Afghanistan.
Well, then we also have to ask the question: Did the US not anticipate that things would come here and that it would have to take a step back? What does he trust? Biden will meet with the leaders of Britain, Germany, France and Italy after his meeting with Putin. What to expect from these talks? That these leaders encourage himself by shouting battle cries? Putin holds the natural gas faucet.
Considering the winter conditions that have already started in Europe, freezing and shaking the continent looks like a move. Not to mention that the European economies, which have slowed down and entered recession under the conditions of the pandemic, are slowly moving to a halt. Germany is experiencing these concerns most directly. France, while further away, would not want Germany, and the EU more generally, to experience such dramatic distress. Could it be the choice of the European Community to enter a war to save Ukraine, the outcome of which will be disastrous for all parties? These are not things that will happen…
Could the US not foresee them? If the United States has such an incalculable and bookless strategy, it’s already done. If the issue is limited to keeping the arms industry afloat and therefore escalating regional tensions, this indicates that the US policies have become simplified and that they have gone beyond the medium and long-term ranges. Because, after a point, no state or even its extension terrorist organizations will do business by relying on the USA.
Our prediction was the provocative Black Sea and Eastern European policies and strategies of the USA, starting a bloody war between Russia and Ukraine and retreating. They brought this to a certain threshold. We see Zelenski playing his part in this scenario. At this stage, the ball is in Putin’s hands. If Putin orders his armies to attack and start the war, he will be playing the game of the USA. I don’t think he will do that. I think that from now on, Putin will punish Ukraine, which has been left alone by the West, especially the USA, in other ways, for example by not giving gas, and will work on plans to overthrow the Zelensky government. There is only one possibility that can reverse this trend. Let’s open that too… It has been announced that Biden will also meet with Zelenski after the European leaders. We can think that Zelensky, who knows that he will lose in any way, may want to play his last trump card in this meeting and quickly get Ukraine included in NATO. I don’t think this demand will be that easy, but if we assume that it is realized, it means that the 3rd World War will break out. I have deep doubts whether the USA will take the risk… In short, my personal opinion is that no one will put their hands on the trigger and this crisis will result in heavy loss of Ukraine.
While everyone is locked in the Black Sea and Ukraine, I guess that the main critical escalation will come from lower geographies. This is directly Israel-Iran oriented. I have been emphasizing for a long time that Israel will hit Iran sooner or later. Perhaps the time has come. Who knows, maybe the Iran issue was discussed more than the Ukraine issue in the Biden-Putin meeting.