In the latest Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday, female voters have emerged as the driving force behind US President Joe Biden’s lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. The survey indicates that in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup, Biden holds a 50-44 edge over Trump, a notable shift from the 47-46 tossup recorded in the same poll conducted just a month ago.
The significant change in Biden’s favor is attributed to increased support from female voters, who now favor him by a 58-36 margin, compared to December’s 53-41. Conversely, male voters’ preferences for Trump have seen little change, with a preference of 53-42, up slightly from 51-41 in the previous poll.
Quinnipiac polling analyst Tim Malloy notes, “The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden.”
However, when considering other candidates in the November election, the race tightens. In a full field, Biden receives 39% support, compared to Trump’s 37%. Independent and third-party candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein, garner 14%, 3%, and 2% of voters, respectively.
While Trump leads among Republican candidates, recent polls suggest a competitive race. A Reuters/Ipsos survey last week showed Trump with a 40-34 edge over Biden. Respondents in that poll expressed a desire for new faces in the political arena, with 67% stating they “want someone new.”
In a hypothetical matchup against Biden and other candidates, Trump’s last remaining Republican opponent, former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, would lose to Biden. The survey indicates that in a one-on-one matchup, Haley would defeat Biden, but her support weakens in the presence of other candidates.
Quinnipiac, a prominent polling institution, has acknowledged past inaccuracies, including mispredictions in the 2016 and 2020 elections regarding Trump’s performance and state outcomes.
