Joe Biden was elected the 46th president of the United States in 2020, defeating Donald Trump. However, polls conducted in 2023 showed that Biden’s popularity was falling and that he could lose the election if Trump ran again¹. There are many factors behind the decline in Biden’s votes. Some of them are as follows:
Withdrawal from Afghanistan:
Biden decided to withdraw US troops to end the war in Afghanistan, which lasted more than 20 years. However, this decision resulted in the Taliban taking over the country and a large part of the Afghan people facing chaos and violence. Biden’s decision was criticised both in the US and the international community and damaged US credibility and leadership².
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– Inflation and economic crisis:
Biden proposed and got approved large-scale spending packages to revive the economy damaged by the pandemic. However, these packages triggered inflation due to increased demand and shrinking supply. The inflation rate in the US reached the highest level since 1990³. Inflation increased the prices of basic needs such as food, fuel, housing and health care and reduced the purchasing power of the people. Biden’s economic policies were criticised by both business and consumers, leading to a loss of confidence⁴.
Covid-19 outbreak:
When Biden took office, he took measures to combat the Covid-19 outbreak, such as speeding up vaccination and encouraging mask wearing. However, the outbreak escalated again due to the spread of the Delta variant and increased anti-vaccination sentiment. Covid-19 cases and deaths in the US have reached the highest level since early 2021. Biden’s strategy to combat the pandemic has been criticised and divided by both those who do not want to be vaccinated and those who want tighter restrictions.
The main reason for the decline in Biden’s votes is the decline in voters’ confidence in Biden as a result of the factors mentioned above. Biden was elected in 2020 with a fragile coalition of different segments united to defeat Trump. However, this coalition began to disintegrate in the face of the challenges and crises Biden faced during his presidency. Biden was criticised and lost support from both the left and the right, both within his own party and with the opposition party, for his reconciliation efforts. If Biden runs again in 2024, in a race with Trump, he could lose the states he won in 2020 and lose the election.
There are different opinions on what Biden should do to increase his votes. Some argue that Biden should change his economic policies, fight inflation and create jobs. Some say Biden should be more decisive and effective in the fight against the epidemic. Others claim that Biden should defend the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and reshape the US foreign policy.
The impact of Biden’s unconditional support for Israel
It is possible to say that his unconditional support for Israel’s actions in Palestine had an impact on Biden’s votes. The Biden administration sided with Israel in the conflict between Israel and Palestine and provided military and diplomatic aid to Israel4-5. This attitude was criticised both in the US and internationally. In the US, especially within the Democratic Party, there is a segment that condemns Israel’s violence against Palestinians and defends the rights of Palestinians7. This group finds Biden’s support for Israel insufficient and demands more pressure. In the international arena, the view that Biden’s support for Israel complicates US relations with its allies in the Middle East and increases instability in the region is dominant8. It is also claimed that Biden’s support for Israel harms the reputation and leadership of the US in the international community.
It is not yet clear what role Biden’s support for Israel will play in the elections to be held in 2024. However, Biden needs to be careful about this issue and continue his reconciliation efforts both within his own party and with the opposition party. Otherwise, Biden’s votes may fall further and Trump’s re-election prospects may increase.
Source:
(1) The main reason Joe Biden’s numbers are sagging against Trump. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/joe-biden-trump-poll-numbers-b2467330.html.
(2) US election results 2020: Joe Biden’s defeat of Donald Trump. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2020/dec/08/us-election-results-2020-joe-biden-defeats-donald-trump-to-win-presidency.
(3) The stark numbers driving Democratic panic about a third-party 2024 bid. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/stark-numbers-driving-democratic-panic-third-party-2024-bid-rcna85155.
(4) How exit polls shifted in 2016 and 2020 – CNN. https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/11/politics/election-analysis-exit-polls-2016-2020/.
(5) 10 Things to Know: Biden’s Approach to the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict. https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/06/10-things-know-bidens-approach-israeli-palestinian-conflict.
(6) Joe Biden’s Unprecedented Support for Israel | TIME. https://time.com/6340511/biden-israel-history/.
(7) Biden administration to restore aid to Palestinians – BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55824227.
(8) Biden Offers Israelis Support, Palestinians Aid in Tel Aviv. https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2023-10-18/in-tel-aviv-biden-reassures-israel-addresses-palestinian-suffering.
(9) Biden administration to restore $235m in US aid to Palestinians – BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-56665199.
