When the ‘3-body’ attack that took place in Iran–Isfahan in the early hours of yesterday morning was escalated to ‘war’ by the global media, which had been on ‘alert’ for days, with the reflex of ‘here it is’, the ‘scanty’ facts were disappointing…
The ultimate admission was that an internal element with ‘Israel behind it’ was carried out by Mossad spies and/or collaborators…
If you look at The Jerusalem Post‘s midday news-commentary; “Israel sent a clear message to Iran by attacking the nuclear facility in Isfahan ‘right next door'”…
Whether 3 birds/mini UAVs are strong enough to carry this message is another matter, but the fact that the area was burning should have been message enough…
Just one day before the Isfahan anomaly, the main Israeli media outlets reported that “Netanyahu shelved pre-approved plans for immediate Iranian reprisal after meeting with Biden.” (‘PM shelved pre-approved plans for immediate Iran reprisal after Biden call’, 18/04, The Times of Israel.) Not only that, the Israeli state broadcaster said, “The response will no longer be as planned. Political sensitivities prevail. There will be a response, but it will be different from what was planned”! (18/04, KAN.)
Let’s not go any further, the one-word social media post by Israeli National Security Minister Ben Gvir shortly after the 3-body attack may be the most revealing ‘message’; ‘Scarecrow’!
‘Scarecrow’? Simple; scaring without harming!
This is the solution to the ‘3-body problem’. It is not retaliation! Expecting/seeking retaliation does not correspond to this case. ‘Scaring’ from the inside, closest to the heart and through the most dangerous energy/nuclear/weapon. It describes how any step Iran takes – and Tehran has said that from now on it will be ‘one-on-one/face-to-face’, without intermediaries – will be handled by Israel…
In a sense, it is similar to the letter written by Iran’s Permanent Representative to the UN after the Iranian attack, with the message ‘for us the matter is closed’!
AGAINST THE DAY TO DAY…
Of course, this does not mean that ‘the danger has passed’. Not at all. Because the complications in the region do not stem from the Israeli-Iranian or Palestinian standoffs. They come from the ‘Global Purgatory’…
In the case of Tehran-Tel Aviv, neither the fact that Iran’s attack with hundreds of drones/missiles was thwarted at a rate of a few percent, nor the fact that Israel only attacked with three objects, neither of which caused any damage…
The concrete reality is that Israel knows that it cannot deal with Iran alone. The message of the three objects does not scare anyone. The exception is direct intervention by the US, which is a separate issue and is also related to the presidential elections. Biden’s going on a crazy experiment out of fear of the ballot box is on another level, it seems unlikely, we’ll see if it happens…
The reason for Israel’s failure to retaliate properly above intimidation is the other reality it faces, the disappointment of the US attempt to turn the Iran attack into an international condemnation!
In exchange for the United States and a series of countries attached to Washington, a very significant part of the world, countries across continents, including Turkey, refrained from signing this text, refused to sign it.
One way or another, Israel must see this, unless it is completely blind. This is precisely what the foreign ministers of Germany and Britain, who were in Tel Aviv the day before, warned that a possible attack on Iran could result in a regional conflagration, and that they would be stretched to the limit…
THE JACKET HANGING ON THE DOOR IS THE BOGEYMAN OF THE NIGHT…
Let’s talk about Turkey…
Ankara’s concern is the same, and its repeated emphasis on “the risk of permanent war and proliferation” in its statement after Isfahan speaks volumes about where it stands. But developments are raising more questions for Ankara to weigh and answer on the eve of a military operation in northern Iraq and before its visit to Baghdad…
The “advice” for Turkey to move closer to the US-NATO-EU line, based on the warning to deal with Iran more comprehensively in the region, has started to be heard more frequently…
Worse, the same “incentive” seems to be given by adding Turkey’s recent local election results and economic difficulties to this picture.
It means that the problem is not understood. This is what we call a “separate bet”! In other words, is the problem a story of countries that pile up on each other based on regional dilemmas, or is it a serious setback due to the shifts in the geopolitics of the globe? Is it a matter of moving through the West and unknowingly / deliberately / implicitly falling closer to Israel, or is it a matter of standing on the global threshold and looking at opportunities more cold-bloodedly?
It is a severe test and will answer the question of whether Turkey will be able to achieve its goal of ending its national security challenges by 2030…
Perhaps, the following words uttered by Turkey’s most authoritative mouth in the Israeli-Palestinian context, when ‘read carefully’, can be considered a clue, a ‘challenge’ to the wisdom of those outside as well as those inside…
“Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Palestinian cause, will be my guest. We will talk. We stood by him in his most difficult times. Hamas is to Turkey what Kuvayı Milleye is to Turkey. We are aware that saying this comes at a price. We will not give in to your attacks and perception games. As Tayyip Erdoğan, I will defend the Palestinian cause as long as God gives me life, even if I am left alone. They killed 14 thousand children. They have already surpassed Hitler. Those who question our sensitivity will be disgraced!”
