In front of the eyes of the whole world, Israel’s massacre in Gaza continues under the auspices of the US, UK and EU states. There is no force to stop this dirty war. The world public opinion and various institutions and organizations, especially the UN, remain spectators. Everything seems to be up to the course of events on the ground. In that case, one of two possible scenarios will determine the outcome. According to the first possibility, the Israeli army will flatten Gaza and finish Hamas, just like Rome once did to Carthage, even if the cost is the death of thousands of children and women. In this case, Israel will have won. Then it will attack Lebanon, Syria and Iraq to establish the Greater Israel, and it will involve Iran in the war and settle the score. The second possibility says otherwise. They will be stuck in Gaza, and in time they will retreat with heavy losses. In this case, they will have lost.
Now let’s take a look at the situation. For almost two months now, they have been attacking with all their might and disproportionate force. Yes, they’ve cleared the north of Gaza of people; they’ve demolished it and they’ve brought in their armor, their tanks, their troops. But it is still questionable whether it has complete control here. On the Khan Younis side, the fighting continues in full intensity. They have not been able to find the tunnels, nor have they inflicted heavy casualties on Hamas. Meanwhile, their own casualties, although they are trying very hard to hide them, seem to be much higher than the official figures.
Time is working against Israel. Thousands of images pouring out of social media reveal the brutality of Israel’s violence. They have less than a month more. In this time, Israel has done it, it has done it. Otherwise, it will enter a phase where everything will turn upside down for it. This is what seems to be happening. As a matter of fact, we have recently seen that the West, which is a partner in this plague and which declared in the first days that it stands by Israel unconditionally and eternally, has started to warn Israel from the highest level downwards. This is the biggest evidence. They have begun to realize that Israel will not succeed and that at some point they will not be able to bear its madness. They are trying to save themselves. Israel, of course, will not listen to them as long as this government remains. The question is how far Israel can carry this. Of course, Israel is not just Netanyahu and his crazy minions. For this reason, it is important to keep an eye on possible future developments in Israel’s domestic politics.
History, like the laws of nature, has no laws and no infallible mathematics. It is always open to surprises. But some of the experiences of the past do not make us calculate probabilities. For one thing, this is very clear: Regular armies do not stand much of a chance when they clash with irregular troops, unless they have very special preparations. We Turks know this well from the Balkans. Ottoman armies lost to Balkan gangs. It is known that these gangs, which are invisible, yet unpredictable in terms of where and when they will appear, in what disguise they will be in front of you, behind you, beside you, constantly setting ambushes, and much more mobile and disorganized than regular armies, have been known to give armies a tough time. This is what happened to the US army in Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc. In both cases, the US army, which was thought to be unbreakable, was simply defeated, even though they themselves did not say so openly and contented themselves with saying “we have withdrawn”. People are not that stupid. Everyone saw that this withdrawal was a defeat. The Turkish army, on the other hand, is one of the few armies in the world that has been able to develop a special preparation and structuring based on years of experience of terrorism. Let us remember the early days. Our outposts would be raided, regular troops would be ambushed while on the move, and we would lose hundreds of casualties in one fell swoop. Then new units with special titles, such as JÖH and PÖH, were created. What we mean here is not the commandos in every army, but units specially trained for unorganized warfare. Our success in the trench conflicts was a function of this. Then we achieved a similar result in Afrin. It seems that Israel had no such preparation. It seems that they entered Gaza blindly. Otherwise, at the end of two months, they would have been much higher than this point.
Another point is that equipment alone does not mean anything. The two decisive elements in a war are command and management, but even more importantly, the determination and determination to fight, which can cover the weaknesses in equipment several times over. It is obvious that there is a profound difference between the Israeli soldiers and the fighters of HAMAS in terms of their will and determination to fight. HAMAS fighters have nothing to lose. They are defending their cities. The massacre knows them even more. The Israeli army is far behind them by this measure. On the other hand, it is clear that there are serious weaknesses in the command and administration of the Israeli army. The Minister of Defense, Galant, who is known for his extremist views, announced that they have given up on large-scale attacks and will carry out point operations. So they failed and decided to change horses while crossing the stream. This indicates that they are in a quagmire.
Unless there is a fundamental change in Israel’s internal politics and if it continues with this mindset, at least for the time being, it seems destined to be buried under this madness. This will not only affect them, but the West as a whole. Attempting to twitch and flee at the halfway point will not be enough to save Biden or the politicians who have declared their full support for Israel. Israel is losing. This is becoming obvious. What will happen next? Don’t get complacent and think that things will automatically improve. The aftermath could be much worse.
The article was translated from Turkish and published. Link: Yenisafak