In the run-up to the midterm elections in the US, the opposition Republican Party was expected to win a landslide victory due to double-digit inflation and rising energy prices. This did not happen. While the votes are still being counted after Tuesday’s elections, the Republicans are closer to taking the majority in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, a bipartisan “tie” is on the horizon. If this happens, the tie will be broken in Georgia’s December 6 re-election. According to Georgia state law, the senator to be elected must receive at least 50 percent of the vote in the first ballot, which neither candidate achieved. On December 6, the election will be repeated.
THE “PARTISAN MEDIA” EFFECT BACKFIRED “RED WAVE” WAS EXPECTED, IT DIDN’T HAPPEN…
Before the elections, especially in the news and comments made by media organs close to the Republican Party, it was stated that the Republicans, symbolized by the color red, would win by far in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Pro-Republican media outlets such as pro-Republican Fox TV and the New York Post presented the expectation of a Republican election victory with the phrase “the red wave is coming”. Some commentators raised this expectation to a “red tsunami”. However, the results showed that not only a “red tsunami” but even the Republicans’ majority in the House of Representatives, where they expected a landslide victory, could be in trouble.
PAVING THE WAY FOR BIDEN’S CANDIDACY
It has almost become a tradition in the US midterm elections that the ruling party usually loses power and voters “balance” against the current President and his administration by paving the way for the opposition party in Congress. Therefore, the Democrat Biden administration had already calculated that the number of Democratic seats in Congress would fall. However, when this decline did not reach the expectations raised by the pro-Republican Party media organs, Biden’s path was paved for a second round of presidential candidacy. There was a debate whether Biden could run for a second term due to his age (Biden, who will turn 80 this month, is the oldest US President ever) and the deterioration of economic indicators in the US due to the after-effects of the Ukraine war. The fact that the Democrats were not “crushed” in the midterm elections seems to have increased Biden’s chances of re-nomination.
REPUBLICANS “TRUMP IS NOW A BURDEN…”
While the results of the midterm elections have made Biden’s job easier, the previous Republican President Trump’s chances of running again have become more difficult.
As the election results are announced one by one, harsh criticism against Trump has started from members of the Republican Party itself. The former US President has been blamed for the losses of Republican candidates that Trump campaigned for and supported – such as Pennsylvania Senatorial candidate Mehmet Oz – against their opponents.
So much so that the Republican Party has even started to hear the phrase “Trump is now a burden on us”. In Virginia, for example, Earle Sears, a Republican who was the first black woman elected Lieutenant Governor of that state, said of Trump that “a real leader sees when he becomes a burden. A real leader knows when to step down. The voters gave us that clear message.”
While Trump is having a hard time with the midterm election results, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who has been mentioned among the Republican Party’s candidates for President in 2024, seems to have a better chance. De Santis’ landslide victory over his opponent in a swing state like Florida, a state that changes hands between Republicans and Democrats from election to election, has made his star shine brightly within the Republican Party. Partly because of this, Trump is expected to announce his candidacy for President for the 2024 elections on November 15th in order to “get a head start”. Obviously, the Trump camp plans to act early and make it difficult for DeSantis to get the nomination.
INTERNATIONAL IMPACT OF THE AMERICAN ELECTIONS
The failure of the Republicans to win the big victory they wanted in the US elections is likely to strengthen President Biden’s hand both domestically and internationally in his last two years in office until the 2024 elections. If the Republicans had won the landslide victory, Biden’s efforts to hold together the Western front against Russia in the framework of the Ukraine war and his efforts to expand the front against China could have been disrupted.
During his presidency, Trump had pursued policies that “disregarded” both European allies and NATO, the most important institution of the Western front, and this had created anxiety among Europeans for a “post-Biden” world. The fact that the American electorate did not show any discomfort with Biden’s international policies in the elections also reassured the allies of the US in this respect.
