Foreign Affairs magazine published an article by Iranian-American journalist and activist Masih Alinejad entitled ‘The Beginning of the End of the Islamic Republic’. In his article, Alinejad spoke at length about the developments in Iran as a result of the suppression of the protests in the country and what they will do next.
In 2014, Masih Alinejad launched a campaign against Iran’s mandatory veiling laws. Alinejad is also the author of The Wind in My Hair: My Fight for Freedom in Modern Iran’.
Masih Alinejad began his article with the following statements:
The current protests in Iran sound the death knell of the Islamic Republic. The killing in police custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who was arrested for wearing the hijab incorrectly, has unleashed a wave of angry and bloody demonstrations, boycotts, work stoppages, and wildcat strikes that have exhausted the country’s security forces and spread to more than 100 cities. The government has endured major protests before, notably in 2009, 2017, and 2019, but these demonstrations are different. They embody the anger that Iranian women and young Iranians feel toward a regime that seeks to stifle their dearest desires. And they promise to upend Iran’s establishment.
The pillars of power in Iran
Alinejad pointed out that the Islamic Republic of Iran was built on three ideological pillars: ‘fierce opposition to the United States, stubborn hostility to Israel, and institutionalized misogyny, especially in the form of rules requiring women to wear the headscarf in public’. According to Alinejad, if any of these pillars weakens, the entire edifice of the Islamic Republic of Iran will collapse. Tehran needs enmity with the US and Israel to keep the revolutionary torch burning.
The torch of US hostility is lit within the Iranian identity, Alinejad continued:
The Islamic Republic rests on three ideological pillars: vehement opposition to the United States, obdurate antagonism toward Israel, and institutional misogyny, especially in the form of compulsory hijab rules requiring women to wear coverings in public spaces. If any of these pillars weakens, the whole edifice of the Islamic Republic falls down. Tehran needs enmity with the United States and Israel to keep the revolutionary flame alive. Anti-Americanism is seared into the Islamic Republic’s identity. The enforcement of the dress code for women is also a redline for the clerical leadership. The compulsory wearing of the hijab is to the Islamic Republic what the Berlin Wall was to communism, a symbol not just of power and endurance but of vulnerability. The Berlin Wall was also an admission of the fragility of the communist system, which depended on exercising great control over people. Similarly, compulsory hijab laws reflect the Islamic Republic’s fear of allowing its citizens personal freedoms and its intent to control society by treating women as if they are pieces of property to be corralled and protected. Once the Berlin Wall fell, communism was doomed. The same fate awaits the Islamic Republic once women can throw off their veils and participate in social life as men do.
Alinejad pointed out that Iran began to impose rules on women’s dress immediately after the revolution, and emphasized that such practices have not prevented Iranian women from resisting wearing the headscarf. Iranian authorities have had to deal with women’s objections over the past decade, mostly through social media platforms due to the state control of media outlets. For example, the ‘My Stealthy Freedom’ movement and its various initiatives to get rid of Iran’s mandatory veiling laws is followed by millions on social media. Initiatives launched by the movement include White Wednesdays (women wore white scarves on Wednesdays in protest), Walking Without Hijab (women took off their headscarves in public), Men Wearing Hijab (men posted photos of themselves in hijab), and My Camera is My Weapon (women used their cell phones to post images of how harassing men or the Morality Police treated them). All these initiatives were launched to empower women to challenge mandatory dress codes.
Masih Alinejad wrote that all these initiatives have enabled women to remove their headscarves and defy the bans imposed by the Iranian regime. “Women shared so many videos of harassment by the Morality Police through the My Secret Freedom campaign that the government passed a law in 2019 that sentenced those who posted videos to the campaign to up to ten years in prison,” Alinejad wrote.
For the regime, trying to control a young generation that wants social change and stronger connections to the West is an uphill battle. Despite widespread censorship, Iran’s Internet penetration rate (the percentage of the country’s population that have access to the Internet) at the beginning of 2022 was 84 percent, a high mark. Iran has over 130 million mobile subscriptions, which gives the country of 84 million people a staggering mobile phone penetration rate of 161 percent, with the average person having more than one phone. The reported number of Internet users in 2022 increased to 72 million from 58 million in 2020, and the real figure could be even higher.
The role of the US
Masih Alinejad believes that the protests in Iran have put the West in an embarrassing position, according to an analysis in Foreign Affairs cited by Sharq al-Awsat. Alinejad believes that US President Joe Biden’s administration tried hard to revive the nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, which was abandoned by former President Donald Trump’s administration. But there now seems to be no chance to save the nuclear deal.
Iran is not an honest negotiator and has a history of fraud, Alinejad said:
The protests in Iran put the West in an awkward position. The Biden administration has tried hard to restore some version of the nuclear deal that the Trump administration jettisoned. But this deal cannot be salvaged. The Islamic Republic is not an honest broker: it has a track record of cheating (failing, for instance, in May to answer International Atomic Energy Agency probes about unexplained traces of uranium at three undeclared sites) and it has yet to fully come clean on its past attempts to develop a nuclear program with potential military uses. And worse, should U.S. President Joe Biden manage to reach some compromise with Iran, a new deal would fly in the face of his forceful condemnation of the regime’s crackdown on protesters. Any deal would likely release billions of dollars to the Iranian government, funding the same authorities who are viciously attacking citizens in the streets.
From theocracy to democracy
According to Masih Alinejad’s article, some in Washington fear that if the US openly supports the demonstrators in Iran, the Iranian regime will harass them and easily portray them as US spies.
In this context, Alinejad continues his article as follows:
Some in Washington fear that if the United States overtly backs the protesters, the Iranian regime will more easily be able to shut them down, painting them as foreign or U.S. agents. In 2009, the Obama administration followed this line of reasoning and refrained from supporting the protests then roiling the country; Obama even made overtures to the clerical leadership just days after the protests began. Obama’s restraint did not make any difference: the regime still labeled the demonstrators as U.S. stooges intent on destabilizing Iran and throwing the country into chaos.
Masih Alinejad concluded his article by saying:
With women leading the way, Iran’s transformation from theocracy to a democracy will be remarkable. It will not happen overnight. But in their bravery, the Iranian people have voiced one central request to Western governments: Don’t save the Islamic Republic. In 2009, the Obama administration opted to deal with to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, rather than support the pro-democracy Green Movement. The Biden administration should not repeat that mistake. Now, more than ever, it is time for advocates of freedom to think seriously about a world after the Islamic Republic
