The war between Ukraine and Russia started on February 24th, and the harsh winter months have been very difficult for both countries. While all the hopes for peace were waiting at the negotiating table, the fact that the war would continue for many more months caused all eyes to turn once again to this geography where winter is the harshest.
In a brutal war that lasted more than five months, brave Ukrainians repelled Russia’s attempt to seize the capital Kiev and oust President Volodymyr Zelensky.
They inflicted demoralizing casualties on Russia’s largely conscripted army and engaged the world’s self-described ‘superpower’ in a fierce battle on its eastern frontier.
RUSSIA PAID A HEAVY PRICE, BUT…
It is this eastern line, the Donbass region, where Russian forces are paying a heavy price for every few meters they throw.
According to outside experts, the war is now at a critical juncture, with only a few months of warm weather left before the battle lines freeze over.
Moreover, pressure is mounting on Ukraine’s European allies, who rely on Russian gas to keep their people from freezing to death.
GAME OF THRONES ANALOGY WINTER IS COMING!
“I don’t want to sound like a character from Game of Thrones, but yes, winter is coming,” Richard Moore, the former Turkish ambassador to the United Kingdom, who has been dubbed ‘Britain’s best spy’, told the Aspen Security Forum last month.
To keep the military, economic and political support flowing, Zelensky needs a stunning frontline victory to show the US and the world that the war is winnable.
“I think it’s important that the Ukrainians demonstrate their ability to fight back, and I think that will be very important for their continued high morale,” Moore said. “I also think it will be an important reminder to the rest of Europe that, to be honest, this is a winnable campaign by the Ukrainians because we are about to enter a pretty tough winter.”
PUTIN TO TRY HIS LUCK WITH ‘GAS’
Putin, on the other hand, seems to be counting on a ‘winter strategy’ in which, as European countries face higher prices for heating their homes, Western resolve will be undermined and Ukraine will be forced to make a deal on Moscow’s terms.
But Russia’s losses have been staggering, with combat estimates ranging from 15,000 to 40,000.
“We continue to see Russia failing on the battlefield, paying a high price for little gain, and suffering internal failures at home,” a senior military official said.
“When you look at the number of people they’ve lost, it’s impossible to believe that if they want to continue to go toe-to-toe with the Ukrainians, they don’t have to find ways to change them,” the official told reporters at a Pentagon briefing.
WILL THEY BE ABLE TO ADVANCE BEFORE THE GROUND FREEZES?
“The next few months will tell us whether the Ukrainians can really use their capabilities to tremendous effect and at least begin to dislodge the Russians in the south,” said retired General David Petraeus. “The Russians have also had to reduce their forces to reposition their defenses to the south.”
