Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants to seize most of Ukraine’s territory, but Moscow’s forces are too weakened and can only advance slowly, US intelligence says.
In March, Moscow focused on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine after failing to achieve its immediate goals of seizing Kiev and other cities.
According to US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, Putin still wants to achieve his goals at the beginning of the war. Since this is unlikely to happen any time soon, the war is likely to be protracted.
Speaking at a US Department of Commerce conference, Haines said that Putin’s short-term military objectives in this region and the capabilities of his military do not match up, and that they think there is some kind of mismatch between what he wants and what his forces are capable of.
Although Russian forces have made gains there in recent weeks, taking control of the city of Severodonetsk, progress has been slow. They have met strong resistance from Ukrainian forces.
The war could drag on
In his first public statement on US intelligence assessments of the war since May, Haines emphasized that the Russian invasion could be protracted and that “the picture is pretty bleak.”
He said the intelligence community envisioned three scenarios for how the war could play out, most likely as a slow-moving war in which Russia slowly makes gains without making a breakthrough.
Other less likely possibilities are a major Russian breakthrough or Ukraine stabilizing the front lines with small gains.
This could suggest that Moscow is becoming more reliant on “asymmetric means of warfare,” including cyberattacks, efforts to control energy supplies, and even nuclear weapons.
Haines’ comments came yesterday after NATO leaders pledged to stand behind Ukraine for as long as necessary.
Leo Sands ve Ben Tobias – BBC News
