European capitals were the scene of a “diplomatic arm wrestle” between Russia and the West last week.
The process, which began with the US-Russia talks in Geneva, was followed by the Russia-NATO meeting in Brussels and the OSCE meeting in Vienna.
Moscow’s “list of demands” marked the talks, whose main agenda was to find a peaceful solution to the Ukraine crisis; Putin’s administration is from the West;
Halting NATO’s eastward expansion,
Nato countries should stop deploying weapons and troops to Eastern Europe,
Russia has called for a reduction in NATO military exercises close to its borders.
Moreover, he stipulated that the commitment to be made in all these matters should be written-signed/approved.
When Russia started the negotiations with such a high hand, both the meeting of American officials with their Russian counterparts and the revival of the NATO-Russia council, which has not been convened since 2019, did not work. When these two critical meetings failed, the OSCE meeting became a “futile meeting”.
MUTUAL MOVEMENTS INCREASED
Although there were no concrete results in last week’s Russia-West talks, it would be wrong to say that the negotiation process is completely closed. Until the next negotiations, the period of mutual moves of the parties began.
For example, the western front opened the “Finland card”;
Russia’s demand that “NATO should not expand eastward” was directly linked to the membership of Ukraine and Georgia; The western front included the NATO membership of “neutral” Finland on the agenda, giving guarantees not to both countries but to Moscow. – The discussion of Finland’s NATO membership is a candidate to move in two different directions; Russia, which reveals the NATO membership of Ukraine and Georgia as the “red line”, follows a quieter stance on Finland. If a compromise is reached between NATO and Russia so that Ukraine and Georgia do not become members of the Alliance without being officially named, the Western Front may publicly choose to “rescue the appearance” by including Finland, which is already a member of the EU, into NATO. Or, for Ukraine and Georgia, the “neutral Finland” formula could be the solution for the West-Russia showdown.
The West’s second move came as a sanctions bill against Putin;
The Democratic Biden administration, through Democratic senators in Washington, issued a “personal sanctions” card to Russian government officials, including Putin.
Moscow’s response came with new military threats;
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov raised the possibility of Moscow “massing troops” in Venezuela or Cuba, referring to the “Cuban missile crisis” that brought NATO and the Soviet Union to the brink of war during the Cold War. Ryabkov also showed western countries sticks under the aba, saying that “the Russian navy will not stand idle either.”
Another important card russia has is the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina;
Serbian nationalist politicians in Bosnia are making moves to confuse the country with Moscow’s support.
The Russians are also still using the “refugee card” for Poland via Belarus.
Once both sides have their leverage, it’s clear that the actual negotiations will begin. Indeed, the US ambassador to the OSCE said Carpenter “did not expect there to be an agreement anyway. This is just the beginning of a process that leads to consultations and regular meetings.”
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