Donald Trump is preparing to take over from Biden from the beginning of next year, to tell the former president, in his words, that he is fired. Last week he won four states in a row with 60 percent of the vote in South Carolina. Next week he is expected to do the same in 16 states. His party is clearly backing him, and every lawsuit against him only strengthens his power.
As for Biden, the Democrats’ nominee, his policies, age, gaffes and memory do not inspire confidence even among his own voters. Unless he is forced out of office due to legal, political or other non-political reasons, Trump is almost certain to take the presidency of the world’s most influential and potentially most problematic country in January with new and stronger claims.
Those who follow him and his politics closely believe that his presidency with version 2.0 will not be good for America, that the country will turn inward in every sense, that Christian values will come to the fore, from immigration to the management of sexual preferences, that America’s deterrence and therefore its hegemony will be eroded, and that the war in Ukraine will end in favor of Russia.
And they are not wrong. Trump has already disturbed the sleep of many European leaders with his statements in the run-up to the election. He said there would be no protection for those who do not contribute enough to NATO. Taking into account Trump’s performance in the previous term, the EU has started to think about how to take care of itself. The result is likely to be strategic autonomy and the end of the American hegemony over Europe that has existed since 1945.
Moreover, reports in Politico, the New York Times and the Washington Post suggest that Trump and his inner circle have done their homework this time and are developing new tactics and strategies, from what to do during the transition period to how to ensure absolute control of the bureaucracy. Think tanks such as the Heritage Foundation and the Center for Renewing America are already producing policy papers for his presidency.
America and the world are worried. Even Putin has expressed his preference for Biden, although there are doubts about his sincerity. After all, America, which has great sanctioning power and even its silence in some cases causes problems, will be led by a leader whose words and actions are unpredictable. He will govern his country and its relations with the world outside the norms and principles we know and are used to, or at least he will make an effort to do so.
Given his track record, he will not be polite and diplomatic. He will write harsh letters to his interlocutors and then publish them. He will play tasteless jokes on the leaders he meets and try to prove how unquestionable his power is. It is very likely that he will be much more concessive than Biden and his predecessors to Israel’s attempts to expand and solve the Palestinian problem through immigration, force and genocide-like actions.
Turkey will inevitably be affected by its policies centered on Christian values, its move away from the liberal ideal and the precedent it sets for the rest of the world. The weakening of NATO, the EU working to develop its own defense mechanism, Israel-centered thinking, and above all its recklessness will probably force Turkey to take serious measures, no matter who is in power. His arrogance will also pose a risk, perhaps even a threat, that we need to take seriously.
However, if the understanding and approach of the Trump administration is read well, it will also create opportunities for Turkey. It will be possible to overcome many problems in bilateral relations, from support for the PYD to explicit and implicit sanctions against us, to better explain Turkey’s weight in the region and beyond, and to avoid being subject to secondary sanctions with the increasing likelihood of the end of the Ukraine war.
I don’t think we should trust Trump’s friendship, nor should we underestimate the problems he may create. But let us follow the process that will lead him to the presidency not with prejudice and anxiety, but with knowledge, preparation and foresight. Let us not forget that if we are not prepared, if we do not take the necessary precautions, if we do not know who is who in the possible administration, if we do not find a place for ourselves within his and his team’s strategic vision, we may be negatively affected by his rule.
And let’s not leave the responsibility only to the state and the government…
