Exactly two days after the US and the UK issued threats in response to Houthi aggression in the Red Sea, Houthi attacks on weapons facilities and camps in Yemen are not surprising. But they raise questions about their impact on the Yemeni crisis, particularly on the power and influence of the Houthis.
These attacks are considered a historic event in the course of the conflict in Yemen. After the United Nations (UN) announced a roadmap for peace, many indicators pointed to the launch of a long-term political process in the hope of ending the conflict. But these attacks are at a point where the conflict could take new paths and important transformations. The details of this are expected to become clear later this month.
Former US Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs, retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt, told Sarkh al-Awsat, “I believe the strikes were successful in achieving their objective and were carried out too late. It will be interesting to see how the Houthis react. If they understand the consequences of launching more attacks, they should think twice before responding. But I expect them to respond because they are the Houthis.”
Expecting more attacks, Kimmitt said, “We will know more after our intelligence agencies do what we call a damage assessment of the attacks. We may have only partially hit some targets. This will require additional strikes. This is normal in these kinds of operations.”
The former US official said, “The escalation depends on what Iran decides. These organizations have been trained, equipped and supported by Iran. Tehran says it has no control over these groups and that they (the Houthis) make independent decisions, while the US assessment is the opposite.”
Kimmitt, who believes that the Houthis should be reinstated on terrorism lists, explained that the Biden administration’s goal of removing them from the lists has not succeeded. The Houthis were expected to become more moderate, less hostile and carry out fewer terrorist attacks. However, the organization increased its attacks in the Red Sea. In this context, Kimmitt said, “In fact, the Houthis are in a much worse situation today than they were before the terrorism regulations were lifted. So I think the administration will decide to put them back on the list,” Kimmitt said.
Ali al-Sarari, Advisor to the Yemeni Prime Minister, pointed out that the Houthis have made political gains after these attacks and that the number of their supporters inside and outside Yemen will increase. The official also stated that the Houthis will be equated with the Hamas movement after confronting Israel and the United States.
بيان للرئيس جو بايدن بشأن ضربات التحالف في مناطق يسيطر عليها الحوثيون في اليمن. https://t.co/NhjpnaLCI0 pic.twitter.com/iV3B17syH6
— U.S. Embassy to Yemen السفارة الأمريكية لدى اليمن (@USEmbassyYemen) January 12, 2024
If regional efforts by Saudi Arabia and Oman continue to accelerate the launch of the peace process in Yemen and a roadmap is agreed upon, these attacks will strengthen the negotiating position of the organization, which is believed to have gained popularity and support locally and in the Arab world. Sarari told Sarkh al-Awsat that peace efforts will not be able to continue after these attacks.
Sarari, who is also one of the leaders of the Yemeni Socialist Party, said that these attacks will not affect the Houthis’ military capabilities. In addition, according to published data, the number of Houthi militias killed and wounded in the 73 raids did not exceed 6 people, demonstrating the futility of this operation.
As Sarari pointed out, these attacks showed disorganization and a lack of focus on specific targets. They also involved a large number of targets, which is nothing more than a message and a warning to the organization that crosses borders and dares to threaten Western interests.
Escape from rights
It seems that the United States and its Western allies are deeply confused between their desire to reach a political solution in Yemen that protects the Houthis and their desire to secure maritime transportation routes and protect their economic interests.
Yemeni political researcher Abdul Jalil al-Hagab agrees with Sarari that these attacks will confirm the Houthis’ claims that they are ‘at odds with Israel and the West’. In his view, what is happening is actually serving Israel, the Houthis and Iran, and will cause serious damage to Yemenis themselves, their state, their political future, their economy and their livelihoods.
Hagab told Asharq al-Awsat that the Houthis’ military capabilities will not be affected by these attacks. “If events develop and these attacks continue for a long period of time and turn into a full-scale conflict, without a military solution on the ground and without the support of Yemeni society and the state in the fight against this group, the Houthis have the capabilities to improve their capabilities and compensate for their losses in the drive to recruit more fighters,” Hagab said.
UKMTO NOTICE 007/JAN/2024https://t.co/6a9TLpaLrg#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec pic.twitter.com/RuyFCayvjH
— United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) (@UK_MTO) January 12, 2024
On the other hand, a Yemeni government official said that Houthi stubbornness will lead to an escalation of the conflict and steer events towards dangerous shifts that will bring more catastrophe and tragedy to Yemeni society and the region.
Speaking to Al-Awsat, the official, who asked not to be named, criticized the international community’s handling of tensions in the Red Sea without turning to the recognized legitimate government. The official stressed that after years of international pressure to expand the influence of the Houthi group, it is time for international powers to learn a lesson. “They must realize that the security of their interests cannot be ensured without ending the coup and ending the Houthi presence on Yemen’s coasts and ports,” the official said.
Recycling gains or the fate of DAESH
The Houthis have vowed to respond to US-UK attacks and target US and UK naval interests and ships in the Red Sea. Some of the Houthi leaders have warned the two superpowers that they cannot determine the outcome.
Salah Ali Salah, a political researcher, pointed out that the US and UK strikes will have a very limited impact on the Houthis. “Politically, the group can now increase its rhetoric to justify its claims that it is facing external enemies in order to gain more fighters with popular support. Militarily, the raids, although numerous, were limited and widely dispersed.”
سفيرة الولايات المتحدة في الأمم المتحدة، ليندا توماس غرينفيلد: طالب مجلس الأمن الدولي الحوثيين قبل أمس بوقف هجماتهم المستفزة على السفن البحرية، التي تتسبّب في تعطيل التجارة الدولية وتعريض حياة الأبرياء للخطر. إن تهديد الحقوق والحريات الملاحية في البحر الأحمر يشكّل تحديًا عالميًا…
— الخارجية الأمريكية (@USAbilAraby) January 12, 2024
Salah believes that these strikes have lost the element of surprise and allowed the group to take precautions. “The majority of the strikes hit a group of targets that were previously targeted by coalition aircraft in the past years in support of legitimacy. It is logical that the Houthis have hidden bunkers and camps,” the official said, adding that the strikes were not aimed at neutralizing the group’s military capabilities and could only be sending a specific message.
Salah said that the Houthis’ military capabilities will be weakened if events escalate, develop and escalate into military action on the ground. He also said the Houthis would incur huge military and economic costs due to the closure of the Red Sea and the diversion of the route.
On the other hand, a Yemeni political researcher based in the capital Sana’a expressed fears that the Houthis will try to take advantage of these developments to gain the support of the Arab public, including financial donations and fighters. He added that this strengthens Iran’s influence in the region, which in turn increases divisions among Arab societies, which is in the interest of Israel.
The researcher, who asked not to be identified, told Al-Awsat that the Houthis are banking on the belief that the United States and its allies are unwilling to engage in a comprehensive confrontation with them. “Everything he does is aimed at imposing his control on any negotiating table, but in the event of a comprehensive confrontation, the situation will be completely different,” the researcher said, adding that the fate of Daesh in Iraq awaits the Houthis if they continue their “stubbornness and attacks.
summarized from aawsat.com
