PM Boris Johnson looks set to survive the no-confidence motion against him, with far more Conservative Party MPs declaring in favour of him than against. Only 39 have publicly called for BoJo to go so far, compared to 116 who have voiced support for him.
Two polls have told very different tales about support for Boris Johnson among his own party members ahead of a no-confidence vote in the prime minister.
Snap surveys by international pollsters YouGov and Tory grassroots website Conservative Home published on Monday — hours ahead of a ballot of party MPs on their support for the PM — came to opposite conclusions.
YouGov found that half of Conservatives thought it was right for 54 MPs to trigger Monday evening’s vote by sending letters of no confidence to 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady.
But 53 per cent thought MPs should vote against the motion, compared to 42 per cent who thought they should vote to set a new leadership contest in motion.
If Johnson wins the vote, 58 per cent of party members said he should stay on, compared to 39 per cent who said he should resign.
But Conservative Home found 55 per cent of party members wanted MPs to show BoJo the door, compared to 41.5 per cent who thought they should back him.
Support for ousting Johnson was much higher among the electorate as a whole, according to YouGov, with 60 per cent supporting the no-confidence motion and just 27 per cent against.
Predictably, 87 per cent of opposition Labour Party voters were in favour of the PM going, but 59 per cent of those who voted Tory in 2019 — many for the first time after years of supporting Labour — said he should stay on.
Weighing the Odds
By contrast the Conservative Home live tally-sheet of Tory MPs declaring for or against the PM gave Johnson a clear advantage. Only 39 have publicly called for BoJo to go so far, compared to 116 who have voiced support for him.
YouGov also found there was no clear successor to Johnson. The most popular alternatives — Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss — attracting only 12 per cent and 11 per cent support respectively.
Both ministers have been leading supporters of providing heavy military equipment to Ukraine and encouraging the Kiev regime not to negotiate with Russia over an end to the conflict between them.