Political leaders of the two most powerful european union and NATO countries held talks in Washington and Moscow on Monday to discuss the Ukraine-based global crisis. German Chancellor Scholz met with US President Biden and French President Macron met with Russian President Putin. A full agreement has not been reached in either capital. The problem has not yet been resolved.
Nevertheless, it can be said that the Moscow axis of the talks was more successful. At least Putin said he found some of Macron’s proposals acceptable. Biden, on the other hand, chose not to stress what he would do to avoid escalating the problem, but to emphasize what he would do if he did, and declared to the world that he would close the new North Stream line by replacing himself as Chancellor of Germany. But he didn’t specify how to turn it off. I hope you don’t have a plan to invade Germany!
In fact, the outcome of both interviews was no surprise. Macron’s visit was not expected to be a miracle anyway. Because the French president was in Moscow to discuss the problem between Ukraine and Russia, that is, not the disease, but rather its symptoms, then he would go to Kiev and discuss the development of the formula, which was previously found in Normandy by the leadership of Germany and France, which would reduce tensions between the two countries.
However, what he had to do was to talk about security guarantees, not between Ukraine and Russia, but between America and Russia. Macron should have gone to Washington instead of Kiev after Moscow. Who knows, maybe Germany and France had a division of labor, and Biden fell to Scholz. The German Chancellor explained to the US President the need to pay attention to Russia’s interests.
But if that assumption is correct, Biden doesn’t seem to understand Scholz. Rather, he was busy proving that Germany was still a reliable ally, showing That America could get Germany to do what it wanted, sending a message to opinion leaders, think tanks and the media who were uncomfortable with not selling arms to Ukraine, not wanting to escalate the crisis.
Fortunately, both America and NATO responded in writing to Russia’s demands. According to Putin, they will soon respond, and this correspondence/note-up will continue for some time. Obviously, there will be a formula that largely meets Russia’s expectations, limits troop deployment, includes an agreement on weapons systems and excludes Ukraine’s NATO membership.
Russia will be the most profitable from this crisis. First of all, it will consolidate its gains, open the gap between America and Europe, and cause a clash of visions and strategies within the European Union and NATO if it can maintain tensions and negotiations. The U.S. effort to maintain its strategic mortgage and ignore NATO’s European wing will backfire. Nato will be politically weakened as Russia sympathizes with the initiatives of France and Germany.
More importantly, as we saw during Putin’s visit to Beijing on Friday, the China-Russia rapprochement will gain momentum because of the pressure America is exerting on both countries. World trade and perhaps the financial system will get new instruments, and other currencies or instruments will be introduced instead of dollars. Moreover, Russia will make us pay for the crisis with rising energy prices and the rest of the world.
The problem, as Macron said, is really complicated. On the one hand, Russia has ambitions, on the other hand, legitimate expectations. It’s everyone’s agenda separately. Ukraine is complicated and complicated. One side says EU, the other side says Russia. We’re talking about a country that’s divided, broken, disappointed in many ways. He expects support to ensure his security, territorial integrity, and fears being used for greater purposes, goals, and being caught between America and Russia.
In retrospect, I think he sees that the agreement to be reached after such great tensions will be a tacit acceptance of the status quo, in other words, its division, and that it can no longer take Back Crimea. France probably understands that many countries, including Germany and America, are not trying to get it to take back territory it has lost control of, but to prevent and deter Russia from claiming more territory…